I have a long and complicated love-hate relationship with the Academy Awards. Every year, they never cease to surprise, satisfy, disappoint, and frustrate me all at the same time. Remember last year when Roger Deakins finally won his first Best Cinematography Oscar for Blade Runner 2049 after being nominated a whopping 14 times? What about the year before that where there was the infamous Best Picture winner mix-up between Moonlight and La La Land? And don’t even get me started on the year when Sylvester Stallone lost Best Supporting Actor for Creed to Mark Rylance for Bridge of Spies for simply putting on a more sour face than Stallone did.

Year in and year out, the Oscars issue their regular round of wins and snubs every time they host the Academy Awards, which I’m fine with. These are competitive awards, after all, and winners and losers are to be expected in every category. But at the very, very least, could you at least attempt not to snub the most deserving winner? I get being split in a category where Incredibles 2 and Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse are nominated side-by-side, but then what’s the excuse for Bradley Cooper not even having a Best Director nomination for A Star Is Born? What, you needed to save room for a guy named Yorgos Lanthimos? Give me a break.

For this year’s Oscars, I’m expecting two things. One: that this will be the first Academy Awards to be conducted without an Oscar host in three decades. That’s thanks to Kevin Hart dropping out from the job in December after some homophobic tweets resurfaced from the comedian’s past. I get the outrage and the criticism that Hart rightfully deserved for his lewd and inappropriate comments, but did he have to drop out from hosting over it? For God’s sake, Seth MacFarlane hosted the Oscars in 2013. Who gets more offensive than that guy?

Two: A Star Is Born is going to lose in mostly every category, which is especially frustrating given how emotional and provocative that film was. Sean Penn echoed my thoughts exactly when he penned an essay to Deadline saying that A Star Is Born “brings people together without saccharine, sugar, or salesmanship.” I just like that he used the word “saccharine” correctly in a sentence. Can we just hand hosting duties over to him? Clearly, his head is in the right place.

What else am I expecting from this year’s ceremony? Let’s hop into my predictions for the 91st Academy Awards and find out.

Best Picture: Best Picture is usually the easiest category to predict ahead of the Oscars, mostly because the Academy’s tastes are generally geared towards biographies and historical pieces. But this year, the Academy seems to have gone in a completely different direction from its usual nominees. Black Panther, for instance, is the first superhero movie to have ever been nominated for Best Picture. A Star Is Born is also nominated, which is irregular because the last time the Academy nominated a reboot for Best Picture was with Mad Max: Fury Road in 2016. And Roma? Completely out of left field. The last time a Foreign-language film was nominated for Best Picture was in 2012 with Amour. In total, 10 Foreign-language films have been nominated for Best Picture throughout Oscar history, but none of them have ever won. Not once.

Normally, I would predict a movie like A Star Is Born would win Best Picture given its massive impact and popularity with audiences everywhere. But its competition is stacked very heavily against itself this year with the likes of The Favourite and Vice, and it isn’t expected to win a lot of other awards this year.

Then again though, Spotlight also won very few Oscars during the 88th Ceremony, yet it still walked away with the highly-coveted Best Picture award from the night. So who knows? Maybe this category has just become bonkers in general.

My next best guess would be Alfonso Cuaron’s passion project Roma, a heartfelt and sincere movie about a family’s relationship with the children’s home maiden. And yes, I understand that a Foreign-language film has never won Best Picture before in Oscar history. The same thing was also true for science-fiction movies until The Shape of Water won Best Picture last year. In times like these, it’s best to play unpredictable just like the Academy does. So to Roma with love, I say it will win. 

Best Director: Alfonso Cuarón won the DGA award for Roma, which means he will also win the Oscar for Best Director. This will be Cuaron’s second win for Best Director, his first being from the 2013 science-fiction thriller Gravity.

I prefer it go to Spike Lee for his phenomenal work on the brilliant satirical race drama BlacKkKlansman, but I understand it can be perceived as an inflammatory picture and it won’t sit well with some voting members. I just wish the Academy wouldn’t play it safe as often as they do. It’s outrageous enough that Lee’s 1989 film Do The Right Thing wasn’t even nominated for Best Picture or Director at the 62nd ceremony. To continue to disregard him after the fact is straight-up robbery.

Side note: Why on Earth is Pawel Pawlikowski nominated for Cold War? That selection is more random than Solo’s nomination in the visual effects category. More on that here in a bit.

Best Actor: The matchup here is between Christian Bale for Vice and Rami Malek for Bohemian Rhapsody. Who will win it? The Vice President or the rock star? Dick Cheney or Freddie Mercury? The esteemed four-time nominated Oscar winner or the first-time freshman nominee? The race is very tight in this category, but I’m marginally placing my chips on Malek. His performance as Freddie Mercury was absolutely mesmerizing, and he essentially resurrected the iconic Queen singer for one last “We Will Rock You” on stage. The Oscar could really go to either actor on awards night, but for myself personally, I’m placing my bets on the underdog. I’d recommend flipping a coin if you’re having trouble deciding in this category.

Honorable mention goes to Bradley Cooper for his heart-stirring performance in A Star Is Born, which I find superior to both Bale and Malek’s performances but behind in the Oscars race. Six out of the past eight best acting winners were all for biographical movies, and since Cooper is playing an original character rather than imitating a real-life historical figure, that sadly puts him behind the pack in the race for Best Actor. That’s a real shame because Cooper was arguably the best part of A Star Is Born and his work deserves to be recognized. Maybe one day he’ll win the Oscar, but it’s not likely that it will be in 2019.

Best Actress: Glenn Close for The Wife. Not only has she been nominated six times before and has never won once, but her performance in The Wife has been widely acclaimed and is mostly considered to be the pioneering force behind the picture. Mind you I haven’t seen the movie, so I can’t compare it to the likes of Lady Gaga’s performance in A Star Is Born or Yalitza Aparicio’s in Roma. However, in terms of both stature and seniority, Close is the safe choice. Place your bets on her for Oscar night.

Best Supporting Actor: The night’s first biggest snub comes in the Best Supporting Actor category, where Michael B. Jordan is unforgivably skipped over for his mesmerizing and intimidating presence as the Black Panther villain Killmonger. What happened to the Academy? Ever since they awarded Heath Ledger the Oscar as The Dark Knight’s Joker in 2008, they’ve suddenly gotten cold feet when it came to considering other supervillains for best acting awards. It isn’t like Michael B. Jordan is undeserving of the recognition. At the very least, I would hope you would consider him more over the likes of Adam Driver from BlacKkKlansman.

Don’t get me wrong: I’m still happy Black Panther got nominated in seven other categories. I just feel that Jordan’s nomination should have been its eighth.

Now then, predictions. Mahershala Ali won the Oscar two years ago for his role as a reluctant drug dealer in Barry Jenkins’ Moonlight. The momentum behind Green Book seems to be carrying him well through Awards season, as he’s already picked up both the Golden Globe and the Screen Actor. Sure, it’s possible that someone like Sam Elliott or Sam Rockwell could pick it up for A Star Is Born or Vice, but it isn’t very likely. For that reason, I would suggest going with Ali for Green Book. 

Best Supporting Actress: Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk. It’s possible that Amy Adams could pull an upset for playing Lynne Cheney in Vice, but it isn’t very probable considering how much King has dominated awards season so far. It’ll be exciting to see which way the Academy leans on Oscar night, but at the very least, let’s agree that it’s outrageous that Emily Blunt isn’t nominated alongside her Oscar-nominated kin for her skillful work in A Quiet Place.  

Best Animated Feature: As much as the Academy has snubbed superhero fanfare in its ceremonies many years prior, the one category where the Academy has always been kinder to superhero movies is for Best Animated Feature. The Incredibles was among the first Pixar movies to win Best Animated Feature in the 2000’s, while Disney’s Big Hero 6 also marked itself as the first Marvel movie to win an Oscar in a best feature category.

Of course, this doesn’t make Incredibles 2 or Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse the automatic winners for this year’s ceremony. It does, however, give them a slight edge over its competition. The question now is which one will take home the gold? As a big Spider-Man fan, I love Into the Spider-Verse and have a preference towards its win. Incredibles 2, meanwhile, came to the theaters about 10 years too late, so I’m equally bittersweet and sour over its nomination as well. This could be my own bias speaking here, but I think Into the Spider-Verse has a real shot at winning the Best Animated Feature Oscar this year. If Spidey does pull off the win, it will be the Web-head’s second Oscar statuette right after his win for Best Visual Effects in Spider-Man 2: and it will be very well-deserved.

Best Documentary Feature: Since the only thing that Hollywood loves more than Ruth Bader Ginsberg is Meryl Streep, it would be foolish to think that any other nominee could possibly beat out RBG for Best Documentary. I’m still frustrated that the phenomenal Mister Rogers tribute Won’t You Be My Neighbor? wasn’t even nominated in this category. Mister Rogers was a good neighbor to you, Academy voters. And you repaid him by slamming the door in his face.

You disgust me.

Best Foreign-Language Feature: Roma. In every year that the Oscars has nominated a Foreign-language movie for Best Picture, that nominee has always gone on to win in the Best Foreign-Language film category. It would be lunacy to believe that precedent could possibly change now.

Best Original Screenplay: While Green Book won the Golden Globe for Best Screenplay and is technically in the lead for this race, I don’t think it will win, especially when you consider the fact that the Oscars and the Golden Globes haven’t matched up in the writing categories for the past few years. Instead, I’m predicting that The Favourite will win the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay. It’s nominated for 10 Oscars, after all. To think that it will walk away empty-handed on Oscar night is just blissful ignorance.

Best Adapted Screenplay: BlacKkKlansman. It’s a sodding shame in and of itself that this is the first year that Spike Lee has even received a Best Director nomination. To rob him of his win for Best Adapted Screenplay now would just be plain cruelty.

Best Film Editing: Normally I’d vote for the action movie when it comes to Best Film Editing, especially since the past three winners have all been for action movies (see Dunkirk, Hacksaw Ridge, and Mad Max: Fury Road). This year, however, there is an issue with that approach: there isn’t an action movie nominated. I guess you could argue that BlacKkKlansman has action in it, but the film is more of a dramatic political thriller than it is a blockbuster. I wouldn’t stake my chips on it.

Now Hank Corwin, on the other hand, is a master at jump cuts and quick cutaways, and his technique is evident in both of his nominated films The Big Short and Vice. This category is a toss-up just like so many others this year, but if I had to select the most reliable choice, I would choose Vice. Don’t be surprised if I get this category wrong this year, however.

Best Cinematography: Roma. Alfonso Cuaron’s cinematography was masterful on this project, whether it was with the gorgeous and captivating wide shots of Mexican scenery, or the intimate and personal close-ups of a family’s small life in their home.

Matthew Libatique deserves an honorable mention for his affectionate work on Bradley Cooper’s A Star Is Born, but the win is more or less locked in this category. If Roma deserves to win any Oscar this night, it would be for cinematography.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Vice. Transforming Christian Bale from the skinny Welsh that he is into one of the most controversial political figures of our time was no small feat to accomplish. I didn’t even recognize Bale the first time I saw him on the big screen as Dick Cheney. That immersion is too impressive to ignore and should not go unnoticed by Academy voters (although to be fair, Bale gaining 40 pounds for the role didn’t hurt the makeup artists chances much either).

Best Costume Design: Normally the period piece would be the shoo-in for this category, which in this case would make The Favourite the, uh, favorite to win. However, the Academy has recently backpedaled from period pieces at their ceremonies. Mad Max: Fury Road surprised everybody and won Best Costume Design in 2016, while the Harry Potter spinoff Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them won the year after. I didn’t think it was possible, but it seems the Academy is getting period piece fatigue. No category is more evident in this than it is in costume design.

With that context in mind, Black Panther seems to at the most significant advantage to winning Best Costume Design this year. It’s true that Sandy Powell is nominated twice here for The Favourite and Mary Poppins Returns. However, she was also nominated twice in 2016 and still lost to Jenny Beavan for Mad Max. Meanwhile, Ruth Carter incorporated African and Japanese cultures into her outfits for Black Panther, giving them a blended feeling of both tribalism and capability.

If Carter does win, not only will she be the first African-American to win Best Costume Design at the Oscars – she will also be the first African-American nominee. Either way, she has made significant strides in this year’s ceremony.

Best Production Design: Black Panther. If anything else wins, then Thanos didn’t wipe out enough of the universe in Infinity War. 

Best Original Song: As much as I love Kendrick Lamar’s lead single “All the Stars” from Black Panther, it is neither the strongest nominated song or the most relevant to the picture it’s nominated for. A Star Is Born’s “Shallow,” on the other hand, is both a powerhouse country ballad and an incredibly emotional tribute to the relationship of the film’s two stars. Lady Gaga was wrongfully snubbed several years ago when her sexual assault anthem “Til It Happens To You” lost to the mopey James Bond single “Writing’s On The Wall.” Her win for “Shallow” this year will be well-deserved and will make up for that indescribable snub. 

Best Musical Score: This is one of the more robust categories to predict this year because unlike previous years where the apparent winner stood out from the rest of the crowd, most of these nominees just kind of blend together. My favorite of those nominated is Ludwig Goransson for his tribalistic, Conga-like vibe for Black Panther, but I’m not foolish enough to believe he can win. After all, he’s only the second composer to be nominated for a superhero movie in over 40 years. The first to be nominated was John Williams for his iconic Superman theme in 1978, and even then he lost to Giorgio Moroder for Midnight Express. If John Williams couldn’t win the Oscar for a superhero movie, what do you think Ludwig Goransson’s chances are? Zilch.

Then there’s Alexandre Desplat for Isle of Dogs and Marc Shaiman for Mary Poppins Returns. Desplat and Shaiman have been nominated for a combined 17 times, and Desplat has already won twice for The Grand Budapest Hotel and The Shape of Water. I don’t think either of these veterans is going to win the Oscar this year.

That whittles it down to Terence Blanchard for BlacKkKlansman and Nicholas Britell for If Beale Street Could Talk. This is Blanchard’s first nomination despite his career being as long as Spike Lee’s filmography, while this is Britell’s second nomination after scoring the 2016 Best Picture winner Moonlight. This race is essentially a toss-up, but my money is on If Beale Street Could Talk. It’s sweet, soft violin melodies capture both the beauty and the tragedy of the story it’s telling. If it’s nothing else, its musical score is tender and sentimental. Moving melodies like it are sure to swoon Academy voters’ hearts.

Best Sound Editing: Ideally, the number of Oscars that First Man wins would be zero. Unfortunately, for however boring and placid the rest of the movie is, its sound editing is admittedly very well done and immerses you into Neil Armstrong’s plight more than anything else in the movie does. While I would prefer this award go to the mesmerizing and ingenious A Quiet Place, I think First Man is more poised to win Best Sound Editing. At least they got the sound effects right in the movie.

Best Sound Mixing: A Star Is Born. There’s no educated reason why I think it will win over the other nominees. I just love the movie.

Best Visual Effects: First thing’s first – why the blast is Solo: A Star Wars Story nominated here? That movie looked uglier than a squashed Ewok between Chewbacca’s armpits. I’ve made it no secret that I detest that movie with every fiber of my being, but the sheer fact that it got nominated over the likes of Aquaman, Mary Poppins Returns or Deadpool 2 is just baffling to me. Apparently if you’re a Star Wars movie, you’re in the clear for a visual effects nominations at the Oscars – even if you’re a BAD Star Wars movie.

Moving on to the real contenders. For several years now, Marvel has been continuously snubbed by the Academy over and over again in the visual effects category. The Avengers losing to Life of Pi in 2013. Doctor Strange losing to The Jungle Book in 2017. Don’t even get me started on the fact that Captain America: Civil War wasn’t even nominated altogether.

Time and time again, Marvel has been robbed of the visual effects recognition that they’ve so clearly deserved in the many years before. 2019 will be its year of recompense. Avengers: Infinity War is arguably the most visually dynamic of any MCU movie produced so far. From the luscious scenery to the brilliant rendering of Thanos’ gargantuan body, every attention is paid to detail with love and affection. I may be setting myself up for disappointment here, but I believe Infinity War has a real shot at winning the VFX Oscar this year – especially when its competition is Neil Armstrong, a video game, and a silly old bear from the Hundred Acre Wood. Fingers crossed on this one.

And as always, we now move on to the detestable short categories – the nominees which almost nobody has seen, but are regardless expected to predict anyway. I already saw Bao in theater when I went to go see Incredibles 2, so I’m picking that one for Best Animated Short solely out of familiarity. I have no idea what I’m doing for the other two categories, however, so I’m just going to throw out my decision based on the two most interesting titles: Period. End of Sentence. for Best Documentary Short and Skin for Best Live Action Short. Good luck to everyone else predicting these categories, along with everything else on Oscar night.

– David Dunn